Calling it a Nowcasting Chase for Thurs

after watching dieing GVTH's all day....and with the confidence not in me to drive 1600 miles to see a chance of a squall line...I decided against....so I looked to see what lies ahead...looks to be SE CO, SW KS area....this out of ways a ways forecast models...whatever?

late night storms

threat for Thurs. are late night severe storms...large hail & isolated tornadoes...NE OK & SW MO....emergency management teams may need to be prepared...this is just a prediction based on the models given @ 00Z into 06Z Thursday

WAA over Greeley

I went to a bbq around 7 and there was a slight wind that made it cold

around 9ish when I walked out of a building...it warmed up slightly and the winds died down

Warm Air Advection had occurred....

108 hour forecast Friday! just an idea

I like eastern NE, southwestern Iowa, and Missouri near Kansas City as far south into Springfield area....late night storms to the south though depending upon initiation...dewpoints & MSLP show interest...as far as other models vorticity advection exist leeward of the low specially in the middle of the night! this all depends on whether there is a cap based on temps...temp models aren't very high because the storms will fire up Thurs probably turning into a washout for this area providing lots of moisture for Friday...this needs to convect due to daytime heating allowing for the dryline to begin initiating
@ 850 mb heights there seems to be good low level winds 30-50 kts
@ 300 mb heights the jet max is entering into this area of prediction
the lizard's tongue seems to be right on the Missouri River bordered northeast NE & SW Iowa
a line from Sioux City, NE to Manhattan, KS

Forecasting for April 30th into May 1st

850 Temps 00Z Weds
lee cyclogenesis begins to setup east of the Rockies
WAA causing heights to rise in parts of western KS
& panhandles of TX & OK
850 Temps 00Z Thurs
panhandles of NE, central KS, western OK - WAA
a clear dry slot west of the alley of tornadoes (Kansas)
eastern CO, western KS, panhandles OK & TX
shortwave not visible (troughs)
another boundary cutting through the panhandles of NE into south central SD

MSLP 00Z Weds
surface low centered in MT, trough in eastern CO
temps Northeastern CO mid 70's to 80's

Dewpoints show advection towards the low positioning on the border of WY & CO on the east side....45 degrees showing in North Platte, NE

something about NE CO & North Platte, NE in the early season of severe weather in the end of April to May...Wednesday....will check in later models

yea

April 24th Ha! enjoy!

working on the April 23rd upload

Storm Reports April 23-24th

Our primary target was based on the dryline developing in eastern CO...Kit Carson would be our starting point...2 severe cells popped- one northeast of Lamar - one west of Burlington...both moving NE....I didn't like how the cell NE of Lamar was developing...so we drove to the northern cell and the dewpoints including the inflow was better to the northern cell...caught up with Michael Carlson & the gang...watching the meso form out of the cell....this was very brief since the outflow boundary was killing the cell....temps were dropping mad....following Mike we punched the core with nickel to quarter sized hail to test the hail guard on Shep's Trailblazer....it was fun to watch the hail collect on the guard....manuevering through the outflow....we headed northeast...rendevous with Tony Laubach... this is when we drove to Hays to position ourselves for tom. Mod Risk....

Lunchtime, we met up with Verne Carlson...Tony, Shep, and I all had mexican food...I remember a question I asked....so name the town closest to see chances of a tornado....Jetmore, Russell, and my town Hill City...yea, we waited for initiation on what Verne Carlson calls it the Lizard's Tongue...such a cool name...the ingredients were there waiting outside of Ness City...it was choked up due to capping action...ah...a cell forming outside of Burlington, CO...looked to have developed on the boundary to our northeast....just a little bit longer...it was clearing...crap...so we hurried into Wakeeney...this is where Tony Laubach, Verne Carlson, and us all went our separate ways....I had this feeling just to stay put as Tony also had....but he left and I just wanted to get internet at that point just to see if we could wait it out with the boundary moving eastward....the cell became severe with tornado warnings....just north of Colby....24 seemed to be the road to intercept...we arrived into Hill City as I watched the cell we headed farther north to highway 9 and headed into the cell....the meso with the wall cloud was visible...it was sure hilly on this road....tremendous outflow to our north kept trying to blow us to the south on highway 9....anyways we got into this core....me & Shep got out of our vehicles with a dim sunsetted light...we could see the structure of the storm....the bad thing was the wind all of a sudden died...literally the blades of grass was at rest...peaceful....this is when the adrenaline kicked...I yelled at Shep...we have to leave NOW!....without hesitation we headed back east and caught up with Mike Umscheid....watching the massive beaver's tail was cool....with the term I came up with clamped lightning....lightning that looks like curved lightning in the inflow...clamping onto the intro of the meso....after this it was dark....quarter sized hail fell....we headed back to Hill City....this is when we drove through the town hearing the tornado sirens going off....that was cool...but the thought of "oh please tornado stay north of Hill City if your around"...it was cool to watch from the south of town Hill City....we saw rapid building roll clouds that look like wallclouds cause of the lowering but is not connected to the meat of the mesocyclone...this is when I knew we were done....there were stars to our west...that was cool! We arrived in Greeley around 4AM

well I am workin on editing April 23-24 youtube is a new idea for me as well as the reports for the action that has taken place...these will be updated tonight....my forecast for the period next week is into Thursday and Friday looks be promising in NE near North Platte..that will be due to the positioning of the low developing in eastern WY...further details later

April 23rd 2008

here r some photos of Eastern CO/ Northwestern KS

Awaiting initiation in Kit Carson....beautiful conditions...southerly moist warm air...

looks to be the border CO/KS

there's no traffic at night....hmmmm? c ya! something about March 29th last year would be great...but seems dim...will c

Weds. is being monitored....SW Kansas...OK panhandle...yes there is always TX...whatever? what we really need is for April 28-29 to develop a tremendous lee cyclogenesis low and having conditions right in the frequent alley of tornadoes....Kansas....but nowhere near towns and away from Greensburg!