Saturday, February 27, 2010

USGS is a great resource for Earthquake Info

CNN & Fox are bringing continuing coverage of the Tsunamis making their way rippling through the Pacific......

The website above is a good resource for latest updates on current seismic activities. Stumbling upon the site Dann Cianca showed me that Oklahoma had 2 earthquakes with 4.4 Magnitude being the strongest within the past hour.

This all happening within a whole day of catastrophic seismic activity really shakes people's minds. The hope is the safety of those in Chile right now, and the hopes of the community to come together for those lives lost in this event.

Tsunami Warnings caused by Chile Earthquake

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a tsunami warning, the highest level of a tsunami alert, for the entire coast of Chile and Peru. A tsunami watch was in effect for Ecuador, Colombia, Antarctica, Panama and Costa Rica. Hawaii was placed under a tsunami advisory.

Colorado March PGF

It's an amazing thing that our Earth is always trying to maintain balance when constantly things are changing and in motion. Many of us upon gazing as a friend of mine (Dann Cianca) calls GOOf (GFS) forecast models; we look at what is likely to happen, but never the reason why things don't happen in later forecast models. Maybe somebody entered in the values for storm chasers to drool over and wish upon a star. In all reality, GFS models can and does fairly well even being 180 hrs out. In saying that of course it improves as the hours wind down.....but again at 180 hours out the models give you an idea....this is where meteorology comes into play....does it make sense to see what you see at 180 hours out....

So why is the setup not occuring with the one we hoped, my only meteorological understanding and interpretation from looking at the models changing are due to this balance thing I was just mentioning.

Our atmosphere is always battling over who gets to go over the mountain not while there is what the pressures call Pressure Gradient Forcing....I was browsing through the models....and this just caught my attention to what may have changed the beautiful Lee Cyclogenesis we all hoped for as plains chasers to the now trough passing through in a northeasterly fashion..

This model outlook shows the center of the low forming farther north after what appears to be Thursdays' clumsy lee cyclogenesis.

In my previous blog the GFS models all agreed in an all out stacked closed Low, but as it passed over the Rocky Mountains, the models show a balance occurring between the pressure/temperature forces therefore weakening the chances of a stacked Low right over the triple point.

Through these Pressure Gradient Force (PGF) times we know we enter Spring; we enter a new month; we enter the cool atmosphere above and heating earth at the surface; we enter pressure differences; we enter March ~~~~~~known as a WINDY month

With March around the corner this should make sense since there is temperature variation due to moisture all throughout the US causing energy change through the transition of the snow season to the melting season. With that said we have all had our share of SNOW.....which in return = moisture for the future.

As far as chasing territory is concerned; I wait......I'm not driving to south & east Texas.....

Now around Colorado, I anticipate from this Low pressing through to provide us with some snow possibly in NE Colorado Thursday maybe into Friday morning; than more on up into the High Central Plains.
"That's all I have to say bout that".....Gump

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Many have an eye on Lee Cyclogenesis

In March marks the beginning of many chasers start to their the forecast shows more agreement in the GFS models. The low pressure breaking down in the east is moving on across the Atlantic, the high pressure keeping things intact will begin to leisurely move along to the east. A system holding together strong through all layers of the atmosphere gives confidence in the models showing a beautiful stacked low in the Pacific moving eastward along the 40 degree latitude. Lee cyclogenesis!

It looks this will put OK & TX on the map for chasing targets....specifics will be determined later.....March 5-7th time frame

Here is a layout of our atmosphere.....with the stacked low over Utah.....

Monday, February 22, 2010

Space weather inspiration

I was up late and wanted to see the looks of what was happening in the wonderful world of space weather. I came across a website with some amazing photos taken from photographers all across the 60th parallel latitude; given they were presented with an opportune night of the Northern Lights.

check these photos from Valentine's Day:
by the way if you want to think of future ideas.......
No WAY.....We landed on the MOON......
YEA killer boots man......Dumb & Dumber quotes

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Last Night in Elk City, OK

A front passing through the panhandles of TX and western Oklahoma last night around 10:30 CST till midnight put up some strong forcing along the line shooting up isolated cells that had a variety of action. Hail reported from dime to nickel sized by my friend Brad Duncan and his photos below:

Lightning booms were heard throughout the night. Thanx to Brad for updating me with this exciting weather. Always good to hear a teaser because after looking at GFS models....they don't look at all pleasing, but patience is of virtue....the moisture left over will plan for this Spring's phenomenonal start to the severe weather season

Thursday, February 18, 2010

I love to watch jets fly

How to finish off the rest of your wait in till Spring sparks
read this from SPC Publications
its a good read:

The Relation of El NiƱo–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Winter Tornado Outbreaks

Coming across this paper earlier in the month and taking into account the Global Forecast Models (GFS) present. I brought both into a prediction that the jet stream will further shift northwards earlier into these next couple weeks making figure in the SPC Publication paper (March anomaly @ 250mb) a bit further ahead of schedule allowing for a better chance for the jet to settle over parts of the body of TX from Abilene through Dallas and eastward. It's a start

Nice squiggly short wave flyin through parts of Eastern New Mexico and Western Texas this Saturday with a lower level "somewhat" of a system as far as a chance for severe weather this coming weekend is concerned. Temps & progression of this system give little excitement yet to a eastern TX beginning development as it will move on towards the rest of the southeastern states.

Friday, February 5, 2010

Tues evening/Weds morning Florida in site

keeping a close eye on another system making its way into Florida again later in the week.....from the looks of today their was wind damage in Florida from NWS wind reports.

Here in Greeley, Colorado, Feb 4-5th have offered a spring like atmosphere around here with temps fairly teasing the sight of spring is on its way, but that will all change rapidly once the massive High Pressure bringing in cold artic air comes slamming into the Front Range early this next week.....

Florida slight risk for today

Thursday evening marine warnings were issued with the long prone squall bringing intense winds of 30- 50 kts off the Gulf coast. Florida panhandle is beginning to see the start to a rainy/windy/possible severe night/day. Will monitor throughout the day.....