Oklahoma was cooking up a spew of convective pops within the cyclonic flow all day long today. A few reached a level to spawn a severe thunderstorm warning with the threat of hail and maybe rotation. Some chasers were able to get into position to spot a few funnels in areas of dry air intrusion and merging convection. From 11AM-5PM convection was ongoing bringing chances of funnels and brief touchdowns including hail.
The forecast made from last blog post was a success in terms of the forecast, but location was slightly off. At midnight 06Z SPC put out a see text, therefore it was warranted :) Than midmorning 10AM MST SPC put out a slight risk with a 2% tornado risk in southcentral OK with 15% hail risk.
My target was all shifted to the north as the models showed the stacked low to remain eastward from eastern TX panhandle. If my map for tornado target areas were shifted southwards in latitude than it was a descent forecast. In the reports today on I-Map there were funnels reported but none were reported to have a touchdown. This cold core event was a positive forecast given the ingredients called for low topped supercells which none really had enough shear to allow the supercells to become dangerous.
The satellite was an impressive comma low pressure system which soon fell away as it dissipated or choked itself off from the feeding dry air. Rain showers soon fell away for the state of Oklahoma.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
|tornadic proned areas of interest 11AM-3PM|
Monday, March 19, 2012
Disregard that I never went out and chased. I rode along side Ryan Shepard through via skype watching his LIVE feed. Technology is amazing and fascinating. Viewing the cu field across the dryline paralleling with hwy 83, it was than Shep would stop in between Garden City and Liberal, KS. Sublette, KS, a town known for the 4 way stop and 4 directions to allow better access to get to storms in case they fired in any direction. While watching and getting all gitty inside over towering turkeys developing, none were simply breaking cap. The only cell from Scott City, KS all the way to the panhandle near Red River curve in TX exploding with supercells of the day was one exploding cell breaking through a touch of blue sky as sun began to slowly go down. All the ingredients for a garden variety thunderstorm blew into the sky. Shep got out and watched it at it's peak before it began to migrate its way north northeast towards Garden City. The moments captured from the LIVE feed aren't measurable as to being there experiencing those moments, even if it is a GVTH(garden variety thunderstorm).
|0155||100||11 SW MEADE STATE PARK||MEADE||KS|
Watching Elk City surrounded by an amazing explosive nuclear bomb to the south was difficult, not gonna lie. Congrats to all that scored some amazing structure and tornadoes to top it off.
Saturday, March 17, 2012
Tomorrow's setup through my eyes are starving. It isn't the greatest setup, but it is a marginal first severe weather setup for the plains. I have been skimming through forecast models intensively, through excitement, but unfortunately it is the only thing I can do with this system. It would have been great to head down to Elk City and play the northwestern OK territory into southwestern KS. Course NW OK has horrible internet service as many know. I am eyeing a section of SW KS to have a tornado. Yet Eastern TX panhandle into the OK panhandle has just as fair a chance for their 2% risk of tornadoes in a large vast area. Charlie's Tail. These are just my thoughts for future reference and learning tomorrow. Will post resulted outcome.
good luck to all chasing tomorrow.....