Sunday, May 31, 2009

Forecast: made: 5/30/09

June 1st: Northern TX panhandle near Perryington, NE CO still in the mix but threat of cold front chasing....although upslope against the front is possible before front passes....if so storm develps colliding with boundary with threat of landspouts Eastern CO
Northern TX panhandle show greater supercell threat with upper level winds entering from a short wave passing at both 300 & 500 mb

June 2nd: Northeastern NM into the TX panhandle near Dumas into Perryton show sign of cold front dipping into area. The front will enhance upslope in NM therefore storms will show a threat of hail with strong updrafts. Models show sign of retrograding shortwave over the TX panhandle giving indication of earlier initiation to move SE bordering OK/TX border near Red River

June 3rd: NE CO a pocket of moisture waiting for intiation on the front range, weak SE flow,
Shear looks good with full curl from the surface to 300mb

First Day of Production giving way to isolated local GVTH







A Mini Meso is seen in this picture

Lightning was captured with Evapotranspiration

Friday, May 29, 2009

June 1st




Target area in previous forecast schedule looks to be following through for the panhandles of OK/TX....skeptical on dewpoints....tune in later for update on forecast
Northeastern CO still showing signs of a good local chase too...soooo

Thursday, May 28, 2009

The funniest storm chasing video EVVVVVEERRRRR!


A great friend of mine, Jon Meyer a meteorologist up at SDSM in Rapid City, SD posted this up! I'm glad he did cause this video is a great way to get the laughter system running! lol!

Looks into June

Rough Forecast Schedule

Saturday May 30th
NE Kansas, NW Missouri, SE Nebraska, SW Iowa
with Jet dipping into SE Nebraska, SW Iowa and surface low creating a boundary
Dewpoints 60-70
chances of tornadoes 10%

Sunday May 31st
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa
with Polar Jet dipping
Dewpoints 60-65
chances of tornadoes 10%

Monday June 1st
Panhandes of TX & OK, Western OK, NE CO, Western KS, SW Nebraska
with subtropical closed low @ 300mb and mini shortwave, very weak Jet, surface low in place
Dewpoints 50-60
chances of weak tornadoes 10%

Tuesday June 2nd
Eastern CO, eastern WY, western panhandle NE
Dewpoints 50-60
with developing surface low moving into the area, Central NE showing exit region of Jet
chances of tornadoes 20%

Wednesday June 3rd
Central Nebraska, South Dakota, South Eastern CO
with shortwave across the state of NE setting up a boundary, greatest Jet entrance is western SD, NW Nebraska, eastern WY
Dewpoints 45-60
Chances of tornadoes 40%

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

JUNE 2009

Looking at the earth models and watching the troughs out in the western Pacific following the jet soon to dip back down into the United States brings lots of excitement to research teams, Discovery, V2, Weather Channel, the 3 million storm chasers, severe weather meteorologists, and the whole bit. May will now take the place in June as it may well be for this 2009 season to wrap it all up before the summer heat!
Remember to be safe everyone that is out there! Avoid being a yahoo chaser and know your limit when chasing. I just hope that we can bring success to this tornado research. See you out in the plains for the next 2-3 weeks!
I will post a schedule once the new models come out.....

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

CRAP!!

video

Cold Front Beauty






To be free is amazing! So be it if I got to chase this cold front....it was fun to chase on the way home....Enjoy!

Monday, May 25, 2009

Forecast for Tornadic Potential Target


May 24th Mountain Supercell!


video
Timelapsed the southside of the supercell moving ENE...than another cell that produced numerous funnels near Parker & Highlands Ranch moving North with wall cloud structure left-over and lots of downpouring....
I woke up to see black skies and was still recooperating from the last two days...I had to get my sunglasses on just from the brightness I couldn't see much at first...once I put them on I could see the structure of a meso forming right off the Rocky Mountains! This soon gained momentum given the midlevel shear and quick height fall....This resulted in a classic supercell structured storm with the upper-level shear as the midlevel shear...Again the moisture was already there...as well as the southeasterly component...badda boom....the question that I haven't been able to ask is why today rather than the other two days....this will be something I will wrestle once I really go back to analyze the meteorological perspective....
As the system moved a couple miles from the mountains it became tornado warned!

After a tornado was supposedly sited which I didn't see any indication of a tornado; along with other colorado chasers Ryan Shepard, Dann Cianca, and Michael Carlson; we all would like a visual moment of this report. 2 miles NE of Commerce City...I did have a good view besides the fact a building was in the way....so this might have been my downfall to really get a ground visual at the instant....There is obvious rotation in the footage no doubt....SUPERCELL!

This storm continued to structure for a good while with a wall cloud and structured meso....
Now for the south, another cell developed....

This created numerous reports of funnel clouds which have visual confirmation; click here to see on 7News http://www.thedenverchannel.com/slideshow/slideshows/19554889/detail.html
Being on the north side of the cell only shows rain curtains and frontal lines....after all was said and done I did see what was left of the wall cloud dissipating...

Other amazing shoots of the Supercell can be seen @
http://michaelcarlsonphoto.blogspot.com/
http://blog.bigskyconvection.com/
http://www.cuttothestormchase.blogspot.com/

Sunday, May 24, 2009

This is what the mountains do!


With early morning daytime heating and plenty of moisture to go around...we once again see convection...mainly a rainy possible lightning day!

Saturday, May 23, 2009

May 23rd Line of GVTH's


This year's May 23rd was again eventful and in fact a funnel was reported, but no tornadoes/landspouts. Dann Cianca & Corey Green were two that witnessed the funnel in separate places....near DIA airport. Me on the other hand was embedded in the rain shaft! It meant business...pea sized hail fell with the dumping rain.
This storm produced all the way south in Colorado Springs making its way over the Palmer Divide causing more convection to enhance creating another line moving through Denver area all the way east to Limon. This line was so uniformed it was unbelievable how long it kept redeveloping with the evapotranspiration occurring...still as I say this even now the dewpoints are still mid 50s in NE CO as if the storm never affected the dewpoints but take and give back. These storms again had no upperlevel shear or we would be talking about organized severe weather. No severe thunderstorms were put out on these convective lining towers holding hands so to speak....
It was nice to enjoy a line of GVTHs with lots of potential and meaning behind it!
video

PICK AND CHOOSE


FACING NORTH


FACING SOUTH

just spottin Denver


CU broken skies over downtown Denver....waiting for future potential of convergence or boundaries spittin quickie landspouts....

May 22nd


May 22nd makes quite a show! For 3 consecutive years on this day, I have had a chance to witness a tornado this today being a Front Range landspout. Today, I woke up with the intention of just seeing cells and rain, but not in my right mind did I think I would see a landspout. It became clear to me as I watched the radar that two separate cells were occurring. One cell on I70 near DIA moving absolutely nowhere, and another set of cells moving towards 85. Now the ones moving towards highway 85 were not west to east movers but opposite... these cells were making there way closer to the mountains. This brought attention to a boundary that would sure setup while nowcasting. An outflow boundary formed from the storm moving towards the mountains collided with the westerly downsloping winds from the upper level High Pressure.
A Denver Cyclone was in place so Southeasterly winds fed the storms even with the slow movement of these storms.

Dann Cianca had just gotten off work around 5:40PM when I called him up and I asked him if he was gonna go out to spot for a bit. I'm glad I made the call cause he was one that got awesome footage of the landspout. As of than I just stood by my window 9 floors up in the hospital. I watched everything without having to pay a cent for gas and that's always nice.
As far as what I got pics were taken mostly from my cell phone because I thought I didn't have my card for my digital camera with me till I realized it was in my computer....lol....oh well....so I got everything going as well as my camera on my computer to capture the storm. The main gist of the captures that really defined the storm came from my cell phone.
Once I got my digital workin, I was able to get better quality pics from the end of the storm. All in all this storm was fun to watch given the Ridge of Death was supposed to terminate any chance of storm chase....well hospital chase in my case....
This was looking towards downtown Denver as the rain is dumping.

video to see the documented landspout check out Dann Cianca's blog! http://blog.bigskyconvection.com/
till than looking forward to next May 22nd......

Friday, May 22, 2009

Let's Recall May 22nd! lol

Everyday we go through our lives....well just for maybe Colorado storm chasers and we remember sticking our thumbs up our butts....I'm glad Windsor is coming together as a community rebuilding and things are back to the normal working atmosphere....but for storm chasers that were in Kansas this was an epic event that many missed.....we move on....
Also May 22nd in climatological standpoint has shown a favorite for chasers because there actually is something to chase.....thing called "severe weather".....this 2009 season whole different story arises.....I've made a very special video clip with the Shep....to join in the pain.....that we will be experiencing....enjoy!

video

Thursday, May 21, 2009

the fast forward button.......

Now the quiet begins........RIDGE............it is about this time the remote that Adam Sandler uses to control time would be handy.....well at least just for the week....
the only hope that teases at 240 hours out gives a chance for a breakdown into getting our chase vehicles back out!
If you want to do something with your life go to the movies in May which is very unusual for storm chasers......but there will be some edginess even when there sitting and they can't see the skies during the movie.....so they will bust out the cell phone just to check that nothing is happening on radar......TERMINATOR 4 & NIGHT OF THE MUSEUM 2
now hopefully will be chasing by the time TRANSFORMERS 2 comes rolling in theatres!
till than get a tan people!
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD TIME TO DO SOME TWEAKING TO MY BLOG.....
peace out

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Radar image....

landspout potential target

I know it says tornado but this was made last week, 4-6PM

record breaker of chasers on one storm tomorrow?


Every chase vehicle in America will not want to miss out on a freakin Slight Risk woooohoooo.....tired of going through maintenance and fixing their gadgets sitting there starring up at the sun waiting for this thing called moisture from the thing called Gulf of Mexico!
Well have good storm chasing all.....I'm just happy my week out forecast was successful....so no forecasting bust even with the risk of the Ridge of Death!
But hey tomorrow hasn't even come....maybe SPC is even desperate just to put up a slight risk? eh will find out tomorrow.....

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

GVTH's as far as the eyes can see




Didn't have my digital cam...so these are from my camera phone shots....