Thursday, April 30, 2009

Sunday, April 26, 2009

PDS is in store for Western Oklahoma


High Risk just now put out through Mesoscale Discussion.....

April 25th recap









Cells fired...hail producers! Reports along a line of separate cells, but only one discrete cell that fired east of Canadian, TX moving into OK really gave any motivation to tornadic possibility....NOPE....as the low level jet moved in & the cells all converged into this monstrous supercell producing around 10:45 PM...long story short....bad move....two bad moves made taking a dirt road not knowing where it went....second leaving when I knew there was possibility of something to happen in the middle of the night....anyways...it's another day....
sleeping in ELK CITY, OK for another repeat with the boundary setting up further west which really sets up for ELK CITY since it was on the boundary today....low level jet, shear, mid 60 dews, temps, what else do you need for a PDS i mean really?!

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Mod Risk as expected

target TX/OK border

Resting in Elk City, OK....Shep & I are ready for action tomorrow!
Tornado risk north of Elk City are very nice...with secondary development CAPE, dewpoints, shear....just amazing....will wait
i look to see near Cheyenne, OK to have a tornado
also east of Perryton, TX during first initation to be tornadic with a possible tornado there....
an all around amazing vertical updrafts for big hail...

Thursday, April 23, 2009

OKLAHOMA

For Saturday:
Elk City....nuff said!
Still workin on tomorrow's forecast for possibility of tornado target points...check later

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Rain/Snow/Rain/Snow/Rain....ummmm


Being in Aurora and nowcasting the whole day was insane with many different things happening at one time....tornado warnings, winter storm warnings, pouring rain warnings(these don't exist), thundersnow, Dendrites the size of TX (SNOW)! To sum it up, that is why they call this state Colorado.....Here are some pics from yesterday's snowfall....



168 hours GFS models for April 24th



April 24th.....it is time! Review of 2008


Freedom awaits me....let me see the denver cyclone low develop and make me happy for severe weather chances once again on this date....last year April 24th, Shep & I chased a discrete supercell through Hill City, KS .....

& I think we can do it again this year! looking at the GFS models show this opportunity....I'm so excited that I reviewed last year's April 24th chase that I got even more excited

discrete is good.....supercell is good....now the question will be a tornado in the daytime hours and not hiding in the dark.....

only visible to flashes of lightning.....if you would like to review footage I believe either Shep or I have it in our 2008 blogs....& go to April 24th......

Till than....will keep posted on the model runs.....I hope and pray every RC plane, train, crane, helicopter, TIV, DOW, RADARS, SCADIZZLES TO SCADAZZLES ARE OUT THERE for the discrete supercell moments....let's understand this tornado.....I want GFSX2010 whatcha ma call models to kick ass so we can improve to pinpoint these suckers a week out....now that's a scary thought....too much mountain dew tonight!

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Looking forward to Nowcasting tomorrow.....



My target point if I was to go out chasing....have fun out there....

Friday, April 10, 2009

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Springfield, MO





This being my target point for tornadoes today was not a bad forecast....2 touchdowns in the vicinity....

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Sat Report

looks to have been some cold core naders afterall looking at the storm reports for Saturday....you know what I did, I played NBA 2K8 and I laid around.. Here is the SPC reports

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

NW KS



Saturday bringing again another round of blizzard in the west and Severe weather in the plains....question is temps....dew points look good...another round of cold core tornadoes are in store for sure with a nice jet dippin in this area...
I for one will have a chance to go out this time....been busy so since Feb this will be another chance to get out and be with the severe weather....