Thursday, April 29, 2010

Synoptic Scale Bump

Looking over the GFS models, I am looking forward to a long opportuned chase week. In order to really have anything to be overly confident about as far as looking out a long ways a way. While starring at the loops of 500 & 300 mb heights, I am interested in a bump (shortwave) generated ahead of what should arise as the following trough. A high pressure will dominate the region first of May until this shortwave makes its way following with the Tropical Jet. Something about this energy gets my attention. Will be following this as models close in on the first week of May.
Synoptically we will enter into a troughing period after the first week of May.This is great for Vortex and other research teams going out this year because I don't think they really want to repeat a Death Ridge Nightmare!

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

A Day of Spring in Aurora, Colorado

Today I went outside for a walk around the hospital to enjoy a day of spring. It's the little things we need to enjoy from time to time.

April 22nd Radar Images Archived & Video

Wanted to throw down some archived radar sequenced from the first cell popping out from near Las Animas, Colorado to the Texas supercells
This is a timelapse of the cell that moved off the Mountains becoming Tornado Warned in SE Aurora moving NE. This cell produced one of two tornadoes out east as it progressed northeastwards.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

April 18-19th Chase Vid & Report

On April 18th, I was busy organizing my house as I had just moved into my new place. I was taking out the trash when I looked north and noticed the Cheyenne Ridge was taking in some action due to a boundary setting up. So I took a break and drove out next to the Greeley Airport and watched these towers mature until it created a monster cell moving very slowly but with some intense shear. I didn't see any hail accompanied with this cell. Lightning was a big factor as one reported a fire caused by the lightning as it moved just north of Wiggins after dark. It was a beautiful cell need I say close to home.

While sitting around looking at models another 'See Text' was looking to cover most of eastern CO up into NE south into NM. With the boundary setups looking prominent near ridges and divides. The moisture looked descent over Akron, CO with a SE component wind.

April 19th, I drove to get into position for anything. While out there I watched a cell trying to prompt out of Fort Collins and to my south cells were bubbling Cumulus Towers continuously. Once the boundary began to make its way to this area of bubbling towers, I knew that since I was sitting under a capped atmosphere for the moment, I ventured south on 71 from Brush to Last Chance. This was great to watch the exploding towers with immense shearing. A meso formed early on, but could not carry on due to the shearing happening therefore everything was falling apart due to not enough CAPE. It was incredible to watch the power though as it moved closer to Last Chance. This is when it fell apart just as it was about to cross 71. Hail fell like rocks. Usually cornsized hail doesn't hurt, but it did that day. Maybe I had sensitive skin that day or something?! lol
Meanwhile I was trying to get a hold of Dann Cianca to run into him, FAIL, we played around each other just to the fact how everything played out. I drove into Limon to get something to eat. Than turned back around to head back north since the boundary was firing off more cells near Deer Trail moving eastward. I got in front of these developing cells as they moved back into the area close to Last Chance.
The best part of the day was watching the dieing meso transfer. This was very unique. From the cell to the north looked to have moved east and the meso wrapped into higher altitude before finally dieing. To the far west where there still stood a large column of towering cu's surviving existed a meso. But back to the best part; seeing the bell shaped meso made the whole day that much better.

Monday, April 19, 2010

April 19th "Having The Boundaries of Mondays" in Colorado Teaser

Again later I will post a full report on this storm...the best highlight was getting into cornsized hail....i like corn better than peas....

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Backyard Sup Teaser

Shot of the day!
Will update this later.....

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

CEDAR FALLS, IA Nowcast Chase

At approximately 3pm MDT, I gave a call to my friend Dan Olsen to give him a heads up for a cell producing in between Ames & Marshaltown looked prominent to be severe warned. He was driving back into Cedar Falls back home. My concern were the inflow clouds producing a possible hook in later radar scans as it would move and mature closer to Cedar Falls.

The severe warned supercell would strengthen to produce a reflectivity value of 65dbz. This was surely to be an impressive hail storm given the tremendous forcing upwards to keep the hail roaring in the skies. Once it got into Cedar Falls, Dan texted me(4:00pm MDT) that he and his family were going to take cover in their downstairs due to the risk of tornado probability and the sudden wind shift. Constant thunder was another factor! As it calmed down I got another text (4:10pm MDT) that the skies were calm, no rain, which meant the base was passing over their house.

Quarter sized hail was finally falling! text @ (4:16pm MDT), presumably we are in the back of the precipitation shaft with hail falling with rain.

Thanx to Dan for making this day fun through his phone conversation and catching up. I look forward to chasing up in those neck of the woods just to be with friends! Good Nowcast Day!

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Colorado Weekend Opportunity

Living close to the mountains has its benefits. A weak small setup has caught my attention for a chance close to home for a spring thunderstorm. We will see how it plays out....

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Cold Front Party in GREELEY!

The boundary of moisture wrapped itself around the Low settling quite nicely along the front range giving mid 30 dews. As the front from the NW came roaring in convection bands formed along this front boundary. Daytime heating as well as easterly to northeasterly winds helped to support incredible dynamics. This front put on quite a show from Denver into Cheyenne with the support of orographic lifting and frontogenesis. Temps were as high into the 60s giving plenty of energy into the first wave of convection along the front.

I knew there was going to be development, but I did not intend there to be enough dew to pour into the band of convection. That is the beauty of the Rockies in the spring. I expected to be chasing the Cheyenne Ridge, but I just didn't feel like going after rain bands. Turns out Cheyenne experienced intense thunderstorms consisting of rain, hail, snow, lightning, and the works of a front. These bands rained out once moving NE into the Wyoming/Nebraska border which was my target area. These were the ones I would have chased, but I just waited as I saw moisture convergence potential along the front range. Than BAMMM...convection!

Today I saw what many of us saw if you were along the front range. A long extending band of convection along the cold front. Intense shear, bb hail, and that smell of spring rain.
In the second band coming out of Boulder extending all the way into Greeley. CC lightning & snow pellets i like to call it (graupel) were seen out of this line of storms.
All in all an amazing front in the books. What a great trick play by the weather!
Happy April Fools....

look closely and let your imagination wander....


So I was realizing that baseball season was just around the corner and on ESPN I caught a story about a pitcher being ambidextrous. This is absolutely amazing in all reality. I forget the pitcher's name I appologize. The question is "Do you want Right Handed Pitchers or Left Handed Pitchers"
While studying the MSLP maps on GFS, I just had an ambidextrous moment that being if it actually plays out in the case of Monday setting up.

April 1st, Eastwardly tilted MSLP (does not include all layers of atmosphere):
This first system rolling through has given not high anticipation as far as severe weather setup is concerned. Yes, moisture and CAPE are not attended for, i will be curious if cells would have been discrete if these elements existed, or if a line of cells would have formed than eventually squalling out. Advection is very week causing this scenario to become almost barotropic. I am looking for similar setups with both scenarios, so will most likely come back to this investigation.

April 5th, Westwardly tilted MSLP (does not include all layers of atmosphere):
The second system making its way gives a better shot with a greater moisture return along with explosive CAPE. advection = baroclinity. This happening really structures the synoptic scale low pressure system all because of a westwardly tilt.

Another observation:
1. the eastward tilt system there is nonzonal flow at 300 mb
2. the westward tilt system there is slight zonal flow at 300 mb

As far as determining targets to the detail, I will wait till Saturday to pinpoint an area of interest.

Have a great day everyone! Watch your back for trickery.....