Monday, March 29, 2010

I'm not driving across the country

At this point in time looking at the models leaves me to wait and stay local. Nebraska calls my name for this system starting off April if I really want to play in the the warm sector....
I'm not going into specifics cause the models are too bouncy. What I do know is a low has setup off the Rocky Mountains and moisture has wrapped into the low spreading across CO/WY border into NE where a boundary forms all the way into MN
4/5 & 4/6 give me a better reason to drive around the country in terms of a hopeful solid setup.....
Can I get a HOLLA, in 2 days April is a new month; Have fun all down in OK & TX if things setup for a descent chase day.

I move into my new place April 15th TAX DAY....whoohoo!

Friday, March 26, 2010

APRIL

nuff said....lol

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Nowcasting Day for MS/AL



Today being trapped in bordem, I followed along with the weather. A severe weather setup over the borders of Mississippi & Alabama brought question as to whether the cells forming along the dryline would be discrete or squall out.

With enough shear they were able to separate into single cells which eventually became severe with tornado warnings. These tornadoes that spawned would be quick lived given the quick movement in these cells.

Watching the first disarrayed group of cells firing in MS and moving into an area of moisture convergence zone quickly helped the organization of the cells. Tornado & hail reports were made in these certain areas of greatest severe threat in AL.


Huntsville was under a threat to the south where 2 tornado warnings put out on two cells moving NE.



Birmingham would nearly miss a tornadic threat as it moved south of town producing one reported tornado. A friend happened to send a photo to me of the tornadic cell to his south.


These were the two SPC reported tornadoes:

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Meltdown Photo Moment

Snow Light in Photos





In the morning I'll dig around outside.....

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

WHITEOUT CONDITIONS....

Recent Thunderstorm passing through Denver.....






To start the afternoon off, a beautiful spring upsloped thunderstorm developed over Denver giving a crazy start to a snow storm! First as the line of rain/snow mix was coming over the mountains, it produced intense upsloping scuds along with lightning. Moments later the most unusual event I've ever witnessed was the intensity of lightning/hail/snow happening all at the same time.

Now it is currently dumping heavy snow! will be monitoring totals as the night progresses...

The April System within sight on GFS

Looking at the GFS models, they show a very significant large wave trough peeking into the southern western coast of California. Upper level looks immensely intense! Many have their eyes on this system to bring in the next/first events of severe weather.



Today, snow is in the forecast for Denver, and an upslope trend is beginning to set in place. Now just waiting for the skies to open with flakes. My hope is to see large flakes to start off the snow storm, hence this morning has shown some sunlight allowing the surface to be slightly warm. WARM SNOW IS FANTASTIC! The larger the better.



Last night I watched a dry line intrusion finally setting up the low in the SW Kansas, Oklahoma panhandle area. This is also evident on the surface plot.

Dry Air Line @ night

Just messing around looking for something meteorological to occupy my time, i found this really sweet vapor/ir satellite imagery. Details are very important in meteorology, and recognizing these details help forecasting skills. I was noticing a dry air line intrusion which does effect temperature differences if looking at an observation sfc plot. It is barely noticeable, but is noticeable.




On the second note: I have found a place in Greeley. This will now be called home! I look forward to moving in April.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

loop your 180hr forecast during your Spring Break!

Hope all are enjoying their Spring Beginning.....

Our atmosphere is transitioning from it's Winter season marking into today's Vernal Equinox giving us the beginning of Spring. Looping the last 180 hours through the layers of our mixing heating atmosphere. As of the weekend March 19-21st, a large significant trough has impacted all parts east of the continental divide all the way into the south and east. Snow everywhere....

Now to keep things in retrospect, all over the central main US we see very significant High Pressure systems dominating and with the upper atmosphere "kind of" calming down with little burps called shortwaves. There is a mimimum slow warm up trend. We also see at the end of the 180hr loop all layers show a nice Pacific Northwest Low Pressure system developing...this strengthening is part due to the upper level ridging over parts of the Rocky mountain range and Central Plains.



Let the atmosphere ride out the miminum zonal wave so this snow can setup your moisture for future severe weather. The first of April will show significance if and only if; THE GULF MUST UNLEASH ITS SERLY FLOW! Dry air, low pressure, and everything else will be available...

Friday, March 19, 2010

March Snowstorm in Denver


What a day for all the metro area! Snowbands brought a great quantity of moisture to pack the mountains and surrounding city.

Sunday, March 14, 2010

OH ALTUS, OK~ DID YOU MISS ME LAST WKND?

THIS COMING WEEKEND (FRIDAY),
CONSIDERING MY TARGET POINT CHANGED AS THE MORNING PROGRESSED LAST WEEKEND FROM ALTUS TO AREA AROUND ELK CITY; IT WAS A GOOD DECISION. I WILL BE NOWCASTING THIS NEXT FLY HIGHING SYSTEM. ALTUS WOULD BE A TARGET FAVORED FOR INITIATION. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS REALLY CREATE A HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT GIVIN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. NOW THERE WILL BE SEVERITY NO DOUBT, BUT FOR HOW LONG TILL THAT COLD FRONT POURS THROUGH? WELL, I WILL BE FOLLOWING THESE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ON NAM & GFS....
I WILL BE CHASING FOR A PERMANENT PLACE TO LIVE THIS WEEK; WOOHOO!

THIS WOULD BE INSANELY AWESOME....BUT I HATE DOING DISHES!

Thursday, March 11, 2010

March 8th Convergence Zone setup along dryline


As the morning fog lifted off Elk City, OK during a luncheon at Mazzios (pizza joint), the morning convection line made it's way into western Oklahoma giving a comfortable 45-50F rainstorm. While crossing over I-40 looking west I could see the air so clear giving indication of a strong dryline. Temps were not a concern while looking at sfc obs around 1pm in eastern TX underneath the pure sunlit area. It was heating up considerably in the 70's. Given the moisture in place from the early convection; the dewpoints stayed relatively high in the 50-60's. This was money for convection as long as something was there to force the air up. Shear was no problem; as well as CAPE which seemed to rise giving a better chance for an explosion of energy to convect.

I previously chased the March 5th action in Kansas; and had forecasted for Sun/Mon to have severe weather in TX 2 weeks back. Having said that, my original plan was to drive back after the chase Friday, but instead I drove to see friends in Elk City, OK. Even before the March 5th event, I was intentionally going to drive to Elk City, anyways, but I backed out Thursday morning. That was until Dann Cianca called me and said "you go to Kansas now." Therefore it was meant to be to end up in Elk City since I was already going to be all the way out there.
After hanging out the whole weekend while keeping an eye out for the severe weather setup for Monday March 8th. I had Altus rattling in my brain, but while watching the skies the morning at Mazzios. This is when meteorology kicked in and told me to wait it out. SPC put out 2% risk for naders in the Elk City area early in the day than shifted south into Altus, OK. We left around 2 to get into the evaporating early morning convection into the dry air. Driving randomly west to Sweetwater, OK; we stopped and waited. Brad Duncan & I checked the last radar that we were gonna get for the rest of the day. Looking south of Sweetwater, we watched towers building. 2 disorganized cells lining up were looking impressive as the minutes ticked.
The chase was on.....

Driving with the storm, we were on the backside for most of the time and got into some sweet hail. While we chilled in the back we watched the cells converge giving a massive base to our north. This was looking impressive to say the least. We headed south to Sayre, OK thinking cells to the south would converge with this cell. This putting us in the SE position of the storm so we could see the hail falling along with the main base in the distance. While on the furthest south remaining cell in Sayre, OK, I felt a strong blast of cold air and said "we have to go now!"
Heading west on I-40 towards Elk City about 3 minutes into it, I get 2 text messages from Ryan Shepard & Dann Cianca saying "are you seeing that tornado, OH MY G'" At that second Brad and I looked to our north and BAAAAAAMMMMMM. There it was!

We drove to highway 34 and got up to catch it cross the highway as it hit the town of Hammon. Many other chasers caught amazing footage as most of you know. If I hadn't made all the stops I did, there was no problem me driving into the tornado. BUT I OWN A SATURN! Seeing the house explode was not something I really wanted to see. While it crossed the road Brad and I saw debris filling the tornado and power flashes. I'm sure most of us chasers wouldn't mind just dirt & power poles.
Dealing with what we're dealt with, I opted out of continuing the chase and wanted to rush to make sure everyone was okay. The damage was a first for me. I've seen my fair share of damage. The best part out of the whole circumstance was the safety of the citizens south part of Hammon.

Once the emergency medical management teams arrived. We left and let them do their jobs. Well done crews....hats off to them...


All the SPC reports made were all accounted for:
2 tornadoes


1 inch hail

We spotted at least 3 funnels & and a horseshoe vortex.

Thanx to Brad Duncan for coming along for the ride and videoing....
Brad Duncan facts:
2 chases
4 tornadoes
2 per chase
all in Roger Mill County?! that's crazy....

Here are the radar & satellite archives of the Supercell~



Monday, March 8, 2010

Sunday, March 7, 2010

March 8th hail & winds

follow me on spotter network tomorrow: sknr31 (this will not be live gps, i'm not that fancy techy....will have to change coords as I go)

I will be doodling around the SW OK area. Altus being my point of interest for some marginal hail. Till than will update tomorrow morning on the skies!

sleep fast~

Saturday, March 6, 2010

Skinner in Wonderland

The ideal thing would be to go see the new movie, instead I left early with the help of forecast Dann Cianca. It all started out like this....I was going to originally go to Elk City, OK to be with friends. I really didn't want to go. Well at 10:30PM Thursday night Cianca gives me a call and says go to Kansas! I was oblivious to what was about to happen in less than 18 hours. After agreement with the forecast, I was excited to venture out for the day in Wonderland KANSAS!

Upon arrival in Oakley, there's the in between stuff of passing Low quadrants, I saw the first lightning strike in the distance. Bada Bam Bada Boom, the action begins. A line of cumulus towers were converging creating a meso eventually lining out due to the immense backside precip causing the outflow.

All in all, I envy those that missed out on this storm, it was stellar indeed throughout the whole afternoon even when it wasn't impressive on radar.

I continued to update Dann on what was happening since he nowcasted which merely every time I got an update I was already in place. Working without radar or NOAA weather radio is just a blast! I also want to mention that if any tornadic event were to happen this had the potential no doubt. The line of storms had everything to show the amazing sunset in Kansas put it off the charts.

So when I made plans with my friends in Elk City, OK I went ahead, and decided I guess I was supposed to be down here. This will put me in position for Sun/Mon severe weather setup if it should arise....

Here are just some of the photos of the day....yes just some....





















Thursday, March 4, 2010

THESE ARE THE MOMENTS......

Entering into the 2010 season, the passion is fully alive even at 4 in the morning and I drive on expecting the unexpected. As an addict meteorologist, I long to monitor a forecast made. Whether right or wrong, this is where I strive to learn to improve as time continues. If I think about it long enough i'm thankful for access to such an awesome tool and freedom to forecast from government made weather models. In all reality they really don't have to give us this access for free more less.
This puts me at the point i'm trying to make, even though technology is available and continues to improve on a daily basis. We meaning I continue to remind myself to look at the skies and understand its patterns. Here's a holla & thanks to all that provide resource to all of us storm chaser enthuasists, meteorologists, and many who happen to stumble across these type of resources related to weather. NWS & UCAR being two well known accessible resources.

Dear Skinner & to whom it may concern,

Now for the past few blog post, I've noticed you have been sticking with a target in SW Texas than hoping it to progress through areas near Abiliene, TX. The only thing lacking is CAPE (should write him a letter) to help sustain this continued severe thunderstorm as it passes into areas of tremendous shear at all levels.
inititation: 4-5pm SW TX specifics will be written later
mature: 6-8pm Central TX specifics will be written later

Your Atmosphere,
Shortwave~

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

PLAY SOME DARTS

Activity of GFS leave us waiting....nuff said
Central High Plains into the Midwest will continue with wintery freezing drizzle/snow! sorry chasers up there....
It's gonna rain here, here, here, maybe here, there, here, and over there......

So I like to play darts, but my Bulls Eye accuracy is 2/50 throws.....at 168 hrs for the 00Z Mar 3rd GFS models, all heights are vertically stacked.....Barotropic = FAIL.....enjoy this model outlook as it most likely will turn into a different outlook as time progresses.
After continuously watching the GFS models for so long, the only consistency shows a line of storms to move through eastern OK & TX, into western AR & LA (Monday/Tuesday).


P.S. my eyes are on SE CO & SW KS for Sunday early evening....