Saturday, February 27, 2010

Colorado March PGF

It's an amazing thing that our Earth is always trying to maintain balance when constantly things are changing and in motion. Many of us upon gazing as a friend of mine (Dann Cianca) calls GOOf (GFS) forecast models; we look at what is likely to happen, but never the reason why things don't happen in later forecast models. Maybe somebody entered in the values for storm chasers to drool over and wish upon a star. In all reality, GFS models can and does fairly well even being 180 hrs out. In saying that of course it improves as the hours wind down.....but again at 180 hours out the models give you an idea....this is where meteorology comes into play....does it make sense to see what you see at 180 hours out....

So why is the setup not occuring with the one we hoped, my only meteorological understanding and interpretation from looking at the models changing are due to this balance thing I was just mentioning.

Our atmosphere is always battling over who gets to go over the mountain not while there is what the pressures call Pressure Gradient Forcing....I was browsing through the models....and this just caught my attention to what may have changed the beautiful Lee Cyclogenesis we all hoped for as plains chasers to the now trough passing through in a northeasterly fashion..

This model outlook shows the center of the low forming farther north after what appears to be Thursdays' clumsy lee cyclogenesis.

In my previous blog the GFS models all agreed in an all out stacked closed Low, but as it passed over the Rocky Mountains, the models show a balance occurring between the pressure/temperature forces therefore weakening the chances of a stacked Low right over the triple point.

Through these Pressure Gradient Force (PGF) times we know we enter Spring; we enter a new month; we enter the cool atmosphere above and heating earth at the surface; we enter pressure differences; we enter March ~~~~~~known as a WINDY month

With March around the corner this should make sense since there is temperature variation due to moisture all throughout the US causing energy change through the transition of the snow season to the melting season. With that said we have all had our share of SNOW.....which in return = moisture for the future.

As far as chasing territory is concerned; I wait......I'm not driving to south & east Texas.....

Now around Colorado, I anticipate from this Low pressing through to provide us with some snow possibly in NE Colorado Thursday maybe into Friday morning; than more on up into the High Central Plains.
"That's all I have to say bout that".....Gump

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