A slight risk as of this hour....covering the whole freakin central part
of the United States....where would I drive to, for a chance of seeing the
cell of the day....
the cell I envision building in the northern panhandles of either TX or OK
will move NE into SW KS there structuring itself to have tornado warnings
put out....this is where my predicton on the chances of a tornado or 2 would
be near Meade to Dodge City..
Another couple more cells moving into higher values of CAPE on the border of panhandles of TX and western OK on I40....will develop a group of towering cumulus some of which will become severe due to threat of hail, and possible tornado. Conditions in northwestern, western and southwestern OK may need to be monitored for hail reports and possible tornadoes in the night hours. Since surface level winds blowing to the NW and approaching hint of jet max @ 300mb give the conditions of supercells near Childress to Knox City, TX...there is possibility of tornado in the later night hours...
You gotta love the mountains due to the upslope action and dynamic forcing mechanics & daytime heating...this being said my hopes are a cell to produce from Fort Morgan to Limon and move directly into an area where dewpoints seem to be comfortable in a triangle from Brush to Wray, to Julesburg....so this cell will have the capability to become severe once in an area of instability to produce one hail of an atmosphere...and a nighttime lightning storm near the triple point into NE near Ogalalla to North Platte....remember at this time of night the SPC are even saying 5% tornado chances.....mmmmm....I don't decide the weather....
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